Bitcoin Bulls Eye $90,000 as Key Metric Signals Market Shift

At the start of this week, Bitcoin investors are watching just a few critical issues. They’re taking a deep dive on anything from technical indicators to macroeconomic policies in a bid to understand the cryptocurrency’s next move. The relative strength index (RSI) is about to close above a four-month downtrend. At the same time we see from on-chain data that short-term holders (STH) are experiencing heavy realized losses. Compounding the uncertainty, further tariffs are expected in the near future, which could filter into market sentiment.

STH Realized Losses Reach Cycle High

Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cohort, characterized by a high sensitivity to price movements, is getting pinched. New data shows that this cohort is realizing some of the largest unrealized losses and are subsequently having to make the most loss-making sales.

Based on data from crypto analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin’s rolling 30-day realized loss for crypto’s STHs just hit a historic all-time high of $7 billion.

The rolling 30-day realized loss for Bitcoin's STHs has reached $7B, marking the largest sustained loss event of this cycle. - Glassnode

This is the largest sustained loss event of the entire market cycle to date. Most importantly, it brings into focus the real and historic upstream challenges that these investors are dealing with.

Analysts hail these sales as the “Death of bulls.” That means the STH cohort is really having a hard go of it, with sales especially lagging even previous record lows. They do warn investors, and tell them to “mind the risk” as the market makes its way through this volatile time. Currently the STH Bitcoin cohort is seeing sales that are targeting the $90,000 level as a ceiling before a top formation sets in and a reversal begins.

Stablecoin Reserves Hit All-Time Highs

Even with these distressing aspects related to STH losses, there are some encouraging signs coming from the stablecoin space. Notably, on March 21, total reserves of ERC-20 standard stablecoins on exchanges hit an all-time high. They have now surpassed a modestly impressive $31.8 billion!

To be sure, Binance still holds a majority of these reserves.

Binance remains the exchange with the highest trading volumes, making this a significant development. - Darkfost

Nonetheless, seeing these stablecoins remain on Binance is generally a positive signal for the market. - Darkfost

This trend indicates that overall, investors are still committed to the cryptocurrency space, despite the increased volatility.

Technical Indicators Point to Potential Breakout

On the technical side, Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) is painting an encouraging picture. The RSI, a momentum-based oscillator, is useful in detecting overbought and oversold levels. Currently, it’s breaking out in the short term as well as long term.

As of writing, the RSI is at 51.4, which is a healthy reading above its important midpoint.

The Daily RSI is showcasing early signs of retesting the Downtrend dating back to November 2024 as new support. - Rekt Capital

On a more positive note, this does reflect increasing positive momentum in Bitcoin’s price, which could open the door to more upside.

Macroeconomic Factors Loom

Though there is reason for optimism from a technical indicator and stablecoin reserve perspective, macroeconomic headwinds may stunt any potential rally. In US, the US government itself is moving toward a reciprocal tariff arrangement on April 2. The first of these moves would certainly add a new layer of uncertainty to the market.

Powell’s admitted that it’s even hard to find the effects of tariffs on inflation at the discount rate level.

You may have seen that goods inflation moved up pretty significantly in the first two months of the year. Trying to track that back to actual tariff increases, given what was tariff and what was not, very, very challenging. So, some of it. - Jerome Powell

Whether or not these tariffs will actually affect sentiment in the market has proven to be the biggest wildcard for investors.

Others are of the opinion that before a sustained move higher, a market shakeout is likely.

Market sentiment has been restored after hitting the short liquidations at $87.1k. Now, it could be a good opportunity for the MM to shake out the market again. - CrypNuevo