Bitcoin now stands at a historic crossroads. This price is right around the cost basis for short-term whales and hyperactive addresses. When looking at Bitcoin’s position locally/historically, there are high odds at a major rally. Stay tuned for more thrilling news in the next few months!
Notable levels like this were recently brought to light by Crazzyblockk, an anonymous financial analyst on CryptoQuant, in a quicktake post. The analyst noted the cost basis for short-term Bitcoin whales is currently at $91,000. For the 10, 50 and 100 most active addresses, this cost basis ranges from $84k to $85k.
A breach below this $84,000 to $85,000 area, viewed by traders as a key liquidity carpet, might unleash thinner liquidity and potential for waterfall selling pressure. This is due to their latest holders who have bought BTC at these levels may want to minimize their losses.
Crazzyblockk on X/Twitter pointed out this chart of Bitcoin’s 10-year seasonality. As he said in a recent tweet thread, Bitcoin is currently sitting at the bottom of its historic range. This means that currently Bitcoin is undervalued by historical performance trends.
In the past, Bitcoin has been very bullish in April and October. Over the past decade, April has averaged a 12.98% monthly return, while October has averaged an even more impressive 21.98%.
With that said, despite short-term volatility risk, Crazzyblockk reiterates a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. The analyst’s job is to look at the latest data and the trend lines from the historical data. They recently raised their odds to 75% that Bitcoin will hit new alltime highs in the coming nine months.
This trajectory puts bitcoin right on the bottom 25% bottom threshold of its historical trajectory. This positioning, as Crazzyblockk explains, sets Bitcoin up with majority odds for a successful rally, supplying even more fuel to the bullish fire.
