The cryptocurrency market, a space usually subject to mood and market manipulation, is currently experiencing an interesting bifurcation. While Bitcoin continues its dance with institutional acceptance, Dogecoin (DOGE), the meme-turned-market-mover, is quietly positioning itself for a potential resurgence. My perspective, shaped by years of observing these digital currents, suggests that the key to unlocking DOGE's true potential lies not just in technological advancements or celebrity endorsements, but in a more fundamental force: economic policy.
The volatility of DOGE, as with most cryptocurrencies, is mostly due to its vulnerability to the macroeconomic environment. Interest rates, inflation and regulatory frameworks play huge roles in determining its price movements. I remember back in the original DOGE days, where one tweet would shoot the price to the moon or crash to zero. While those dramatic swings haven't entirely disappeared, the market is maturing, demanding a more nuanced understanding of the factors at play.
The recent excitement surrounding the “DOGE Dividend” proposal, spearheaded by Azoria CEO James Fishback, has been compelling enough to do just that. Fishback makes the case that this is not an inflationary move, but a deliberate reallocation of existing federal savings back to households that pay taxes. It’s an interesting concept, a possible mechanism for funneling liquidity and confidence into the DOGE market. Like all successful innovations, it’s not without its critics.
Economists like Kimberly Clausing at UCLA School of Law warn that certain budget proposals could balloon the US federal deficit, potentially hindering the Federal Reserve's efforts to manage inflation and lower interest rates. As expectations of lower interest rates increase, so too do the values of cryptocurrencies. For illustrative purposes, DOGE jumped 3.2% to $0.147 on March 2, 2025, once speculations of this development started to circulate. On the flip side, runaway inflation might quickly chip away at investor confidence and have them stampeding to safer shores.
Those reservations are echoed by Lance Roberts, the chief investment strategist at RIA Advisors. He points to the inflationary risks associated with sending out stimulus checks on a large-scale basis. As Robert Stein, our Deputy Chief Economist, has pointed out, 3% inflation is still pretty darn high. He explains that disbursements might actually further destabilize this rate. The debate is ongoing, a tricky tightrope walk between reinvigorating the economy and ensuring monetary prudence.
Aside from shifts in monetary policy, reforms in regulation may prove another spark to DOGE’s continued rise. For example, the Trump administration’s deregulatory 10-to-1 policy was designed to get rid of harmful, duplicative, or overly burdensome regulatory burdens. The USDS is now formalized, and a committed DOGE team has been tasked with shepherding these shifts. Making this change could not only simplify the process but foster a pro-business climate. Perhaps the most ambitious goal, to eliminate 50,000 pages worth of rule from the Code of Federal Regulations, is a great place to start. We believe this effort will help reduce regulatory burdens and increase overall investor confidence in DOGE.
I’ve long argued that clear and consistent regulations are key for any new market to blossom, and the market for crypto assets is no different. Uncertainty breeds fear, and fear stifles investment and innovation. By creating a predictable and transparent legal framework, policymakers can attract institutional investors and legitimize the cryptocurrency space, including DOGE.
That DOGE isn’t just a meme. The data does more to reinforce the notion that DOGE is a real mover. Trading volumes on all major exchanges combined increased by 25% in the past 24 hours. They reached a remarkable 5.3 billion DOGE, signaling a dramatic surge in market activity. In addition, the technical indicators are lighting up with bullish signals. On Mar 2, 2025 this “golden cross” occurred as the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average. Even better though, this event could be the start of a hopeful upward trend. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently 62, indicating that DOGE is neither overbought nor oversold. That’s an enormous missed opportunity because it’s creating opportunities for CET and huge benefits downstream!
Curiously enough, DOGE’s price performance has been similarly connected to the broader AI story. As you can see, the correlation of DOGE to AI-based tokens, such as AGIX, is an impressive 0.75, illustrating how linked these markets are. AI is changing every industry and every walk of life as we speak. Its increasingly prominent role in the cryptocurrency ecosystem could prove advantageous for DOGE.
To be sure, challenges still lie ahead. DOGE’s mining method, it uses proof-of-work like BTC, has come under fire for being extremely energy-intensive, which worries environmentally-conscious investors. Scalability issues will require new solutions to make sure DOGE is capable of supporting a growing number of transactions. The good news is, these are technical hurdles that the DOGE community is already hard at work to overcome.
Looking towards the future, the fate of DOGE depends on a combination of events. Predictable, sound economic policies that ensure long-term stability and vigorous growth are at least as important. Regulations that are clear and consistent and allow for the appropriate level of innovation while protecting investors are key. Further technological breakthroughs, particularly those that tackle scalability and energy efficiency, are imperative.
As a former journalist, I know what narratives can do. The story behind DOGE has transformed from an amusing, meme-inspired gag to a credible player within the cryptocurrency space. If policymakers can create an environment that fosters innovation and investment, DOGE has the potential to surprise many and solidify its place in the digital economy. Now, it’s no longer the memes making the case—it’s those same economic forces brewing under the surface that are going to determine its fate.
