As a journalist deeply entrenched in the world of socio-economic trends, I've often pondered a fundamental question: How much of our success is due to our own hard work and merit, and how much is simply a matter of luck? It’s a question that ignites passionate arguments, transcending political boundaries and undermining philosophical proclivities. Here at OverTraders.com, we study the way the market moves and determine profitable investing tactics. We know that getting to the human aspect – the faith-based prejudice that fuels our decisions – might be just as important.
Yet the debate is not just academic. How we reward success matters in the real world, affecting everything from corporate culture to social good policies. Our culture, especially in the West, celebrates individual hard work and meritocracy. This viewpoint may serve to obscure the reality that success is the result of effort, talent and drive. It demonizes the impact of external factors like luck or privilege.
Painting success as a product of meritocracy alone is dangerous. It ignores the systemic inequalities that are deeply woven into the fabric of society, including inequitable access to education, quality healthcare, and economic opportunity. Failure to consider these elements creates a deadly recipe. It enshrines a winner-take-all system that continually awards the high-flying and well-resourced, while punishing those with a genuine barrier to success.
Contrast this with many collectivist cultures, which attribute more importance to luck and external factors. There’s no doubt that hard work should be honored, but luck and a person’s starting line have an enormous impact on outcomes. Folks are beginning to realize this. In contrast to cultures of success, in these cultures, success is understood largely as the result of an individual’s hard work and good luck.
This way of seeing is especially strong in Asian cultures. As an illustration, in many Eastern cultures there is a pervasive belief that success is focused upon materialism/wealth and status. While individual effort is crucial, there's a recognition that luck, fate, and social connections can significantly influence one's trajectory.
Indeed, even across the massive continent of Asia the differences are dramatic. Indian culture often defines success as a harmonious balance between career and family life, prioritizing relationships and quality time with loved ones. This is in stark contrast to the Western focus on personal success and material riches.
Latin American cultures are typically more relationship-oriented and family-focused than career-oriented or success-driven culture. In Brazil, people have a tendency to measure success by arriving at a sustainable work-life balance. They define strict limits and put themselves first in order to achieve their ambitions. While accomplishments in one’s profession are a measure of success, that’s not the only type of success that counts. It is equally dependent upon strong social ties and personal happiness.
The manner in which we reward success in advocacy has wide-ranging implications for gender equality. In fact, research has demonstrated that women are passed over for equal pay and promotions. This occurs most frequently when their success is chalked up to luck, rather than their talent. This systemic bias often derails women’s careers and keeps women from making advances in addressing gender biases in the workplace.
Studies have revealed a troubling trend: success is often attributed to luck when it comes to women, while men are more likely to have their achievements credited to their inherent abilities. This gap is a result of cultural biases and stereotypes that devalue women’s work and perpetuate gender inequities.
In addition, if we attribute all success to luck, we excuse the need to be motivated and grind. When people believe that their results are just due to chance, they become demoralized. This mindset can lead them to disinvest in their own growth or pursue their aspirations with vigor. Believing in the power of luck is empowering. Instead, it usually creates disincentives, which in the end have worse outcomes.
Even the attribution process is enormously complicated. It’s a more complicated thing, affected by all sorts of factors, not the least of which is the dynamic between observers and actors. People define success in a myriad of different ways. Their views shift depending on whether they are looking back on their own accomplishments or evaluating the work of others.
Cultural norms and values heavily influence our attributions. In collectivist cultures, members tend to agree that luck plays a big role in success. Individualist cultures focus on the role of hard work and personal accountability as the primary contributors to success.
As someone who has traveled the country and the world as a journalist, I’ve seen how these cultural differences play out in myriad contexts. From business deal negotiations to political campaigns, how we think luck and meritocracy work shapes choices and outcomes. This perception can immensely influence their actions and the results that follow.
Take the Treaty of Versailles, the dramatic political moment that redrew the world’s map after the First World War. Wise negotiations and creative politics by the treaty’s proponents helped to craft its terms. It was the vagaries of chance, most notably the death of Tsar Nicholas II and the ascendance of the Bolsheviks, which sealed their fate. The Nazi party’s ascent to power in Germany was largely determined by a number of fortuitous occurrences. Two main factors played a role, the economic crisis of the 1930s, and the death of President Paul von Hindenburg.
As this year’s National Hurricane Center report notes, even some of the minor events can have a widespread impact. The Japanese invasion of Kyushu in 1945, the flu pandemic of 1918, and the land transfer that sparked the Napoleonic Empire were all impacted by the fluke butterfly effect. These unforeseeable events shaped the debate in significant ways and ultimately changed the direction of history.
Whether success is the result of luck or the result of agency is still a complicated question. More importantly, there’s no easy answer to it. Fortune and meritocracy affect success too. Their importance changes with cultural context, the individual’s life situation, and field of achievement.
As a journalist, my goal is to shed light on the complexities of this debate and encourage a more nuanced understanding of the factors that contribute to success. By acknowledging the role of both luck and agency, we can take steps to create a more equitable society. Whether you’re from a rural town, an urban center, or anywhere in between, everyone should have the opportunity to thrive.
For us at OverTraders.com, this means recognizing that while skill and strategy are paramount in the markets, unforeseen events and market volatility – the "luck" element – always play a part. Recognizing this supply and demand balance informs more attainable risk understanding and investment targeting.
