The majority of Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) predict a recession to arrive in the second half of 2025. This tidbit is from the most recent CNBC CFO Council Survey. The survey points to increasing worries over economic dampening effects, increased inflation, and the chilling effects of current policy on business decision-making. Yet for all the sanguine outlook CFOs have for their respective sectors, there is a widespread gloom about the general state of the U.S. economy.
The Q1 survey, conducted between March 10 and March 21, gathered insights from 20 CFOs representing large organizations across various sectors of the U.S. economy. View from the inside The CFO Council survey is a useful tool for gauging sentiment and short-term expectations among America’s financial leaders. These leaders are key corporate strategy makers and investment decision influencers.
In the face of a recessionary outlook, a surprising 75% of CFOs express optimism on the outlook for their specific industries. At a time when broader economic conditions have warranted their own set of concerns, companies seem to be surprisingly confident that they’re in a good place to weather any economic downturn.
Optimism about the larger economy is much more tempered. Indeed, 90% of CFOs expect a moderate (50%) or slight (40%) economic recession. No one can blame Americans for expecting the U.S. economy to face strong headwinds in the years ahead. This expectation is true even if we are able to stave off a deep recession.
One of the biggest reasons driving this negative outlook is the ongoing uncertainty around trade policy. Executives in every sector of the economy are understandably anxious due to perpetual trade disputes. They are deeply worried about where global economic policy may be headed in the future.
According to the survey, a significant 95% of CFOs believe that current policies are impacting their ability to make informed business decisions. This indicates that confusion over what the government is doing or planning to do is making it difficult for businesses as they look to the long-term.
In short, some CFOs were discouraged by the current administration’s approach while admitting that the administration is indeed fulfilling its promises.
Too chaotic for business to navigate effectively. - One CFO respondent
Here’s one key insight from the our recent CNBC CFO Council Survey. Most people expecting another recession place it in the latter half of 2025. Worries over economic uncertainty and inflation contribute to this belief. Beyond that, the possible magnitude of policy choices can be all-important.
Economic and market uncertainty ranked as the No. 1 external business risk, mentioned by 30% CFOs. Inflation at 25% and consumer demand at 20% strongly correlated. Indeed, these fears are top of mind for financial execs.
Overall, the survey reveals that CFOs are “pessimistic.” CFOs report that their outlook is negative toward the overall state of the U.S. economy. They show ambivalence about the stock market too. This sentiment is a brutally honest, yet accurate, portrayal of the uncertainty and fear that is gripping business right now.
As of last week, some on Wall Street were putting the odds of a recession at 50%. This does illustrate how profound the angst among economists and market analysts is at the moment. Sixty percent of CFOs surveyed believe there will be a recession in H2. This assumption only feeds into the overall uncertainty that … is the vibe out there in the market right now.
Complete chaos, without an end game strategy. - One CFO responding to the survey
The survey highlights the imperative for businesses to proactively evaluate and mitigate risk in a volatile economic environment. Companies must develop strategies to navigate potential challenges, adapt to changing market conditions, and make informed decisions based on the best available information.
